By Gift Olivia Samuel The Sight News
ABUJA: Stakeholders were on Monday April 25, 2022 urged to downscale the regional forecast for the Sudano-Sahelian regions of West Africa including Mauritania and Chad to the grassroots where it is needed most, especially for agricultural activities.
This call was made by the Director General /Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet), Prof. Mansur Bako Matazu in Abuja, at the closing ceremony of the 2022 Edition of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum on the Seasonal Forecasting of Agro-Hydro-Climate Characteristics for the Sahelian and Sudanian Regions of West Africa and Sahel (PRESA-SS).
Prof. Bako who was represented by Engr. Mailadi Yusuf Abba Misau, emphasized that it will be a huge waste of resources— financial and human— to dump the forecast on shelves and not to downscale to the farmers and others that need the information.
“Our scientists have burned the candles to produce this advisory, it is left for the policy and decision makers to get it deployed. The various NHMSs will always be there to provide the needed technical support and expertise to downscale the product”, he said.
He expressed delight with the methodology adopted during the workshop, which he said, began with a review of and capacity building on the forecasting process, forecast drivers and forecast tools which ensured that every participant was brought on to, relatively, the same level.
“I was also made to understand that three thematic groups were identified and focused upon: Agrometeorology, Climate Services and Hydrology and that each of the thematic groups produced the first country-level forecast, and then upgraded it to a regional forecast.
“Brain-storming discussions were then held before reaching a consensus on each of the thematic forecasts and finally harmonized as one single regional forecast for the Sudano-Sahelian regions of West Africa and the other two Sahelian countries that are outside West Africa (Mauritania and Chad), which is the document to be presented today”, he said.
While noting that there is virtually no sector that is not impacted by weather conditions, he stressed that the activity the participants have conducted, to produce a reliable regional forecast, will impact on virtually all that will be done within the next climate cycle, especially in the manner they plan the use of water resources for agricultural production.
For his part, the World Meteorological Agency (WMO) representative for North, Central and West Africa, Mr. Bernard Gomez noted that as the Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) in West Africa and the Sahel approaches 25 years, the time to take stock of products and services is now, in order to be better guided to take the right steps to continue to ensure relevance, quality services and leadership in the area of climate services.
“The user-community, including women, youths, media outlets and the last mile communities, etc., should be given a prominent role in the exercise. These are the communities that need the results the most, and if it doesn’t get down to them, I am afraid that we are wasting resources”, he said.
In his goodwill message, the Director General, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Mustapha Habib Ahmed, noted that the NiMet Seasonal Climate Prediction has been a veritable tool for NEMA in flood preparedness, mitigation and response.
Ahmed, who was represented by Fatimah Suleiman Kasim, Deputy Director, Planning, Research and Forecasting, said, “NEMA uses the SCP from NiMet to develop Early Warning Messages for the provision of timely and effective information to stakeholders and communities. The added information from this forum will likewise assist NEMA in ensuring all States and communities vulnerable to flood received the warning through community engagement, Television programs and information, Education & Communication materials among others”.
He promised continuous support and collaboration with other stakeholders to bolster efforts in combating and reducing the aftermath of weather-related issues in the country.
The Senior Hydroclimatologist at AGRHYMET Regional Center, Dr. Abdou Ali while giving a summary of the information provided in the forecast, said the whole region in terms of cumulative rainfall is expected to have a total rainfall which is above average, early onset of the rainy season is expected almost for the whole sudanian and sahelian areas, late cessation dates are also expected in the same areas, as well as short dry spell at the beginning and end of the rainy season.
In terms of river discharge, he explained that above average discharge in different regions is expected, adding that the forecast has different impact from one area to another.
The workshop which had participants from the 17 countries of West Africa including those from Mauritania and Chad, also built capacities of participants on Python Climate Predictability Tool (PyCPT) which is a statistical tool designed for mass production of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts, skill assessment and probabilistic flexible forecasts.
