By Gift Samuel, The Sight News
Abuja -It is good news for farmers in Nigeria as the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) in its 2018 rainy season forecast has predicted that there would be normal rainfall amounts in many parts of the country.
The 2018 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) report which was presented to the public in Abuja and unveiled by the Minister of State, Aviation, Sen. Hadi Sirika on Tuesday, showed a normal-to-early than normal onset and normal cessation.
The Minister in his keynote address, noted that the expected normal rainfall in most parts of the Country does not rule out the possibility of isolated flash floods due to high intensity rainfall at the peak of the season, especially in places that are naturally prone to flooding.
“We have reliably established that losses to extreme weather phenomena could be minimized by using early warning information such as NiMets Seasonal Rainfall Prediction” Sirika emphasized.
He called on all stakeholders to take necessary precautions to reduce the negative impacts, especially on agriculture, water resources and environment sector.
On his part, the Director-General, NiMet, Prof. Sani Mashi, while presenting the highlights of the report which had the theme “seasonal climate forecasting for sustainable development”, noted that dry spells during the rainy season may be more frequent and severe (10-18 days) in some parts of the extreme North while the ‘Little Dry Season’ or (August break) in parts of the South are expected to be pronounced.
Mashi further highlighted that,“The earliest onset date is expected to be from March 1 around the coastal region of the South-South. The onset date changes as we move northwards with areas around Maiduguri, Potiskum and Nguru predicted to have onset from June 1.
“The country is expected to experience normal-to-earlier-than-normal onset. Places like Sokoto, Bauchi, Kaduna, Lafia, Makurdi and Ado-Ekiti, Akure,Calabar and Eket are expected to experience early onset while places like Yelwa, Bida, Abuja, Iseyin, Abeokuta, Lagos Island, Ikeja and Umuahia are likely to experience late onset. Other parts of the country are expected to have normal onset” he stated.
On the 2018 cessation dates of growing season and departure from Normal, Mashi said, “the end of 2018 growing season is expected to commence from September 28. The earliest cessation date is expected to start from September 28. This will occur around Sokoto and Katsina. The southern coastal cities, with ample soil moisture should have their cessation as late as December.”
“Cessation of growing season is expected to be normal across most parts of the country. Early cessation is anticipated over Jos, Ibi, Uyo and Ikeja. Cessation will however be little delayed over parts of Ibadan, Ondo and Warri” he noted.
Speaking on the 2018 Little Dry Season (LDS), he added that, “the probability of occurrence of LDS in 2018 is 40 per cent in Iseyin and Enugu while about 60 per cent chance of occurrence is predicted for Abeokuta, Ibadan and Shaki. Ikeja, Lagos Island(Roof),Ilorin , Akure, Ado-Ekiti and Osogbo have chances of occurrence more than 75 per cent in 2018”.
On the socio economic implications, he stressed that farmers in Yelwa, Bida and Abuja are advised not to plant early, while farmers around Sokoto, Katsina, Yobe, Zamfara, Kebbi, Jigawa, Kano and Borno are advised to source for early maturing and drought resistant varieties of seeds to avoid waste of resources.
The forecast is prepared by NiMet before the onset of the raining season every year to provide weather and climate information with regard to the overall performance of the Growing season.
