By Prof. M. K. Othman
In Nigeria, flooding is the most imminent preventable disaster, occurring annually with dire consequences, including the loss of life and property across several communities nationwide.
The statistics over the last five years (2021-2025) are alarming and underscore the urgent need for stronger prevention. In 2021, 27 states were affected, with thousands of hectares of farmland destroyed. In 2022, the worst floods in a decade occurred, destroying 305,400 houses and 569,000 hectares of farmland across 35 states, valued at $6.68 billion, equivalent to N9.352 trillion.
In 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics estimated economic losses from flooding in Nigeria at approximately $9 billion, equivalent to N12.6 trillion. A combined analysis of 2024 and 2025 flood losses estimates losses at $9.5 billion (N13 trillion). According to World Bank and NEMA reports, the losses are estimated at $6.2 trillion (44%) for Housing & Property, $4.1 trillion (29%) for Agriculture, $2.3 trillion (16%) for Infrastructure, and $1.4 trillion (10%) for Livelihoods & Services.
In its 2026 flood forecast, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NiHSA) has predicted that millions of Nigerians will be exposed to severe flooding. According to NiHSA Director General Arc Umar Mohammed, in an interview with Vanguard Newspaper on July 8, 2026, “From our records, Nigerians are exposed to flooding in 2026, and until the incident happens, we can tell who is affected because these are all part of the prediction.
Farmlands and public facilities will be affected.” These predictions raise urgent questions about preparedness: How much property will be destroyed and how many lives will be lost in 2026? How many communities will be affected by the 2026 flood disaster? What mitigation measures are in place for vulnerable areas, and what preemptive strategies can avoid the disaster? These are pertinent questions that demand answers.
Failure by those with such responsibilities to answer these questions has been disturbing to some of us, as professionals and concerned stakeholders, who are not oblivious to how to prevent and mitigate the effects of flooding. Generally, in our lackadaisical way as a developing nation, we ignore almost every imminent disaster until it happens; then we begin to shed crocodile tears, and before you can say “Jack,” an investigation panel is put in place if the disaster is big enough. In most cases, the panel’s hidden agenda is to avoid asking embarrassing questions about preventable incidents.
By the time the panel report is submitted, if ever, the euphoria of the incident would have gone; the victims of the disaster, the dead, would have been buried; the injured and property losers would have accepted their fate as part of their destiny; and the nation would move on, waiting for another cycle of disaster to occur. These disasters range from plane crashes, road mishaps, and fire incidents to banditry activities. Sometimes, the bandits/insurgents are bold enough to announce their visit to communities; little or nothing will be done until they come. Can we break this recurring cycle of calamity? A perennial flood disaster is one such calamitous event with devastating, incalculable losses of life and property.
From 2020 to date, I have written six articles on flood disasters in Nigeria to raise awareness, mobilize stakeholders, and provide advisory services to help the nation act decisively, but with insignificant results. All these articles are on my blog for easy access.
The major causes of the floods in Nigeria are well known. They include inadequate drainage channels, silted dams and waterways, the invasion of aquatic weeds, typha grass overgrowing river channels and riverbeds, as well as illegal diversion and encroachment on waterways for building and conversion to farmland. Coastal areas are worst affected by river floods, as Nigeria is located downstream of River Niger. The river passes through several countries and discharges an average flow of 5,589 m3/s into the Atlantic Ocean.
This river, with a length of 4,180 km and a drainage basin area of 2.1 million Km2, is the third-largest river in Africa and has six major perennial rivers as tributaries, crisscrossing the length and breadth of Nigeria. Despite early flood warnings and knowledge of the causes of floods, we still watch as the number of flood occurrences, their magnitudes, the areas affected, and the adverse socio-economic consequences increase annually. This is why prevention must be treated as urgent national action.
Several factors complicate policy formulation, making it hard to answer ‘why is it so.’ Federal agencies like NIHSA, NiMet, NAERLS, and state agencies responsible for Early Warning (EW) are working independently rather than collaboratively to address flood challenges. Against this backdrop, is there a government strategy that unites FMAFS, FMWR, FMA, and state Agriculture ministries to manage floods? First, synergy among the agencies and ministries is the crux of achieving concerted efforts to address flood disasters.
However, a recent move by the Federal Government to curb recurring flood disasters in Nigeria may alter the trajectory of past flood events. The move united key agencies—emergency, weather, hydrological, telecommunications, and space science—to create a unified early warning system aimed at saving lives and reducing the impacts of climate hazards.
The key task is to ensure that at-risk people receive timely disaster alerts. It followed a high-level interagency meeting convened by NEMA in Abuja on July 29, 2026, ahead of the national launch of the UN-backed EW4All Initiative.
The meeting was attended by NEMA Director-General Mrs Zubaida Umar; NCC Executive Vice Chairman Dr Aminu Maida; NIHSA Director-General Alhaji Ahmed Ibrahim Mohammed; NASRDA Director-General Dr Matthew Adepoju; NiMet Director-General Prof. Charles Anosike; and a UNDRR representative, Mr Muliro Mashauri. The stakeholders deliberated on strengthening collaboration among critical institutions, defining their roles, and establishing practical measures to implement a coordinated national early warning framework.
While the FGN effort is a right step in the right direction, it still represents a talk-shop similar to previous talk-shops—more rhetoric, policy deliberation, and an implementation framework that more often than not ends up on paper with little or no implementation.
However, the federal government and international agencies cannot do it alone; it requires the active participation of state and local governments in flood mitigation and prevention strategies. Most state agencies lack the necessary power and influence to secure their state governors’ financial support and active participation in implementation strategies until a preventable disaster occurs, prompting state governors to act. Therefore, FGN and international agencies need to embark on robust advocacy and facilitation to mobilize state-level leadership to implement mitigation and preventive strategies.
In conclusion, addressing the causes and prevention of floods should take a comprehensive, holistic approach that involves state and local governments and communities. So far, there is no indication that this holistic approach is being implemented effectively.
Therefore, one of the ministers may need to invite governors to attend some of these gatherings and secure their commitment for their states to participate in flood mitigation and preventive policies to change the negative narrative about flood destruction. This is a clarion call to prevent floods and mitigate their effects. May God guide us to significantly reduce flood destruction nationwide, amen.
