By Gift Olivia Samuel, The Sight News
ABUJA—Politicial analysts under the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) Election Analysis Centre, have predicted the likelihood of localized violence in six states in the coming elections.
The affected states include; Kano, Kaduna, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Lagos and Benue states.
Making these disclosures on Friday in Abuja while discussing, “Political campaigns and the battleground states”, an analyst and professor of Political Science, Nasarawa State University, Prof. Jideofor Adibe, noted that the violence will happen in states where there appears to be balance of forces in the elections.
According to him, “Our assessment and the feeling we have is that there will be localized violence and this will happen in places where there appears to be balance of forces in the elections.
“Places like Kano, Kaduna, Anambra,Lagos, Rivers and Akwa Ibom and even Benue. Rivers and Akwa Ibom are often called the ‘rivers of blood’ because historically, they appear to be very vulnerable to violence.
“Rivers is not helped by the continued hot war between Chibuike Amaechi and Nyesom Wike. In Akwa Ibom, Godswill Akpabio is likely to try to prove that he is the grand master of politics in that area.
“In Kaduna where Nasir El-Rufai and the Shi’a issue may make matters worse. Kano is one of the places we need to watch. We also need to keep a close eye on Lagos and Benue state”, he said.
Also, a Senior Fellow in CDD, Jubrin Ibrahim, pointed out that the Shi’a factor in the northeast and northwest may dent Buhari’s victory in the regions.
“There is a large Shi’a population and they have decided that they will massively register and vote against Buhari, he said. “We don’t know quite how many they are, they may be as large as three million or few but that is one factor that may dent some of Buhari’s win in the north-east and north-west”.
On the threat to Saturday’s elections in several states, the Centre pointed out that factors such as armed banditry and hazy weather in Kaduna state, vote-buying, faulty card readers, partisan security agents and collation of wrong results in Oyo, Cross Rivers , Osun and Niger states could pose serious threats.
Also, vote-buying was listed as a threat in Yobe state while poor security of voters and political thuggery was said to be a likely threat in Enugu and Imo states.
Giving an overview on the impression of the just concluded campaigns, the Centre noted that there are general discussions on which party had more crowd as well as concerns about peaceful elections, vote-buying and use of fake news.
They further urged Nigerians to come out en masse to vote for their candidate of choice in the February 16 and March 2, elections.